Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf266de8e7140380b9ab4e7ec3c84523e83ec546332d08ce60dca4e94d0b80b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,209$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 1,098$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 863.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 794.88$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 29c | 559.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 12c | 399.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 336.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 261$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 6c | 257.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 234.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 30c | 228$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 225.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 211.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 196.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 180.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 164.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 160.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 26c | 157.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 7c | 144.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 135.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 132.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 128.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 127.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 120.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 23c | 119.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 112.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 103.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 33c | 103.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 101.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 95.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 27c | 95.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 24c | 92.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 91.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 84.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 70c | 82.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked No | 69c | 75.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 74.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 71.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 72c | 59.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 73c | 54.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…b51cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 49.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 28c | 49.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 25c | 49.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 48.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 27c | 45.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 38.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 37.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 80c | 33.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 31.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 30.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 67c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.