TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06f…6719backed Yes16c1,010$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c794.9$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.425,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes11c606.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9838515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c568.95$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.294,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2107832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes21c297.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.130144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c282.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.683,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes44c232.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5817310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes13c221.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.021,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes63c211.96$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.997040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c201.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.578,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c182.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes33c180.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6611343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c176.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.695,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes45c175.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c159.65$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.993,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No67c155$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.531,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes57c153.51$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.121,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No51c143.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1448523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes67c135.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4827841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c134.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes42c129.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.966,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes51c121.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3329835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes58c114.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.329239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No80c108.66$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1939968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes16c105.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.512638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes18c104.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes19c101.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.893545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1923…ef8ebacked Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8229740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee65…5067backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes30c99.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.542,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes31c96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.184,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c94.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.623,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes38c91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes18c90.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3812832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes32c89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.371,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c85.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.027,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2f03…c848backed Yes14c84.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-79.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No50c82.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.812,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes41c82.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.727949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c76.41$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.434,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes14c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No79c73.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.653,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No44c69.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.922,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No44c67.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c63.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.781,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes22c59.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.224434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c58.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes69c58.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.514247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c58.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.153,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes27c56.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.122,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c52.76$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.673,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c52.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.258,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa88f…1096backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.528847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes32c46.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No68c42.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…29e8backed Yes37c38.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No44c38.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.542,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c37.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.862,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes30c36.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.872,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c35.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No68c35.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No50c35.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.662,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No79c33.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0141760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No76c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No73c31.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4311257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No72c30.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.452,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes57c28.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0311163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No53c26.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.682,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes63c26.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9834628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No73c25.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8457264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c22.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b62…e627backed No72c21.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes54c19.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4634…44adbacked No77c16.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.89366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No68c15.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No73c14.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.872,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No80c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.829281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.