Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b797cefd2d3ce944fba8e268701fca952e469da810f29ce9196f6599e9879bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9be0…f674backed Yes | 17c | 17,574$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,984.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 16c | 5,072$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.95 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 2,006$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…846cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,854$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,384$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 3c | 1,294$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…6bb2backed Yes | 5c | 1,243$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 2c | 854$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 14c | 709.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 16c | 640.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…4544backed Yes | 6c | 627.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e9…1248backed Yes | 14c | 571.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 6c | 551.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 4c | 480.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…4c41backed Yes | 15c | 422.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 9c | 385$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 4c | 362.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…0088backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…36c6backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…a97bbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 13c | 245.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…c879backed Yes | 16c | 231.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 17c | 228.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…f37bbacked Yes | 15c | 201.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7d…55f3backed Yes | 15c | 199.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Yes | 16c | 143.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0c…f2a7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 16c | 94.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…d84ebacked Yes | 55c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-18?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.