Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a3ae696dbea99a1b60e24b821b58e526fe34748920f0fece613280d02db5788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 77c | 1,780$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.44 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,487$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.86 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…9f1dbacked No | 40c | 1,462$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 62c | 981.66$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.27 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 20c | 733.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…f8ffbacked Yes | 15c | 605.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…28f4backed Yes | 57c | 568.24$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 25c | 528.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.68 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71e9…1248backed Yes | 23c | 521.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…160bbacked No | 80c | 500.73$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes | 24c | 487.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.62 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…5f6abacked Yes | 23c | 436.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +336.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 16c | 431.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.19 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 8c | 421.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.58 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 386.36$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.14 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c42…4019backed Yes | 23c | 371.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +336.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…935abacked No | 80c | 331.75$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 13c | 310$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.4 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 58c | 279.91$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 25c | 256.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 24c | 225.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…cc4ebacked Yes | 23c | 222.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 23c | 218.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 76c | 213.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Yes | 20c | 195.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 19c | 170$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 77c | 144$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 71c | 140.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 37c | 135.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…2c73backed Yes | 65c | 135.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 24c | 126.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed Yes | 17c | 120.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 76c | 118.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 21c | 100.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 21c | 100.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 24c | 87.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…6b77backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 83.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc849…9bd3backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 24c | 62.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 52.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4b…5ae1backed Yes | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…2043backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae96…38a1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…36e8backed Yes | 74c | 39.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…ae0abacked Yes | 79c | 37.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…0a3dbacked No | 78c | 15.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…c719backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-18?No won
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.