Golf · resolved market
Will Lando Norris be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c10b45d8c354f6aba7b1ca6e2df73d97cf2cabc1f2cdc3bfaddfb13156d5a66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 46c | 1,738$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,144$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 352.12$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 8c | 330.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed9…cdbdbacked Yes | 27c | 304.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1c…8d02backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 21c | 212.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 12c | 190.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 188$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 27c | 186.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 17c | 185.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 19c | 159.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Yes | 17c | 140.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…124ebacked Yes | 27c | 139.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…939abacked Yes | 15c | 137.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 36c | 136$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 27c | 132.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 116.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed No | 77c | 82.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 27c | 72.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 62.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…a052backed No | 78c | 51.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 20c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…9e02backed Yes | 22c | 49.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 75c | 48.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…0790backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad9…65d7backed No | 80c | 38.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…8a51backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…055bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…3715backed No | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…a5f2backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?this page
- Will Alessia Russo be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?No won
- Will Chloe Kelly be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?No won
- Will Ellie Kildunne be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?No won
- Will Hannah Hampton be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?No won
- Will Luke Littler be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?No won
- Will Rory McIlroy be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.