MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1cadb4ace87a5f5d0dc50b97adb9820b70a5bf82a58470957302e1f3622b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 43c | 9,862$4,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240.79 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 57c | 4,847$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.21 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 2,401$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.48 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 57c | 934$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.62 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 43c | 566.79$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.72 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 57c | 236.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 57c | 175.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…0f04backed No | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…9324backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 64.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 57c | 44.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 56c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 56c | 23.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.