MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7655fa67640f9a6482867d210e51b5e498013fbabf45a8ec263bdf2cdf94829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 25,868$9,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,312.35 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 12,327$8,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,136.71 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 12,291$7,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…a00bbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 11,026$7,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,094.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 7,248$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 3,796$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 2,892$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.08 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,305$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 850.2$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.07 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 800.12$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.94 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 698.13$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 391.9$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 388.41$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.49 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 356.41$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 318$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 226$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 113.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 109.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 101.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 86.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 79.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…efd6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 18c | 76.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 75.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…0bcbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 68.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 68.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…08a0backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 66.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 51.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 26.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…30b1backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.