MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ffb774825ed9f8fc2f2626530773b8dc32b25eb4d814de004dabaa7a4d951ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5461…92bebacked Over | 36c | 13,618$4,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 9,150$5,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,490.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 8,226$5,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 4,874$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.47 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 2,629$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 2,013$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…8894backed Over | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,318$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 1,155$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.49 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 860.5$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 34c | 559.4$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 20c | 511.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 42c | 480.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 63c | 447.08$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 42c | 411.43$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 20c | 363.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 305.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 80c | 245.09$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 42c | 232.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Under | 56c | 226.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 32c | 219.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 42c | 205.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 57c | 204.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 44c | 190.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 65c | 189.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 151.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Under | 65c | 146.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 77c | 117.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 109$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Under | 54c | 96.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Under | 73c | 94.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 75c | 78.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Under | 41c | 73.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Over | 39c | 72.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 56c | 71.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…0bcbbacked Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 60c | 62.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 61.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Under | 58c | 59.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 43c | 56.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 56.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Under | 70c | 49.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Under | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 78c | 45.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Over | 57c | 38.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Over | 37c | 33.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 43c | 31.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 39c | 26.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 75c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 63c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 75c | 18.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.