MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e1bc1644be1cb1b2191c084ca4e83f2b81285a2ae2e29f403bb219d61f77df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 2,681$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 52c | 1,900$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 1,359$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 1,217$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 1,077$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 392$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 55c | 232$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 225$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 30c | 204.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 201.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 75c | 172.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 138$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 57c | 115.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 94.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Over | 50c | 92.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 39c | 67.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 27c | 65.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Over | 44c | 58.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Over | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 47.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Over | 25c | 41.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 37c | 38.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…dbd6backed Over | 52c | 36.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Over | 51c | 36.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Over | 37c | 32.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 46c | 22.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.