MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9baa61f26f18c389aafcee5bf58b9bf75317ce847abaf802901c6055fa12d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 42,407$20,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,354.44 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 79c | 19,625$15,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,121.29 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 21c | 14,810$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.13 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 13,277$6,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,372.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 8,855$4,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250.62 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 7,954$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.99 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 52c | 3,850$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.99 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 3,578$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.44 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 63c | 3,176$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.52 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 3,079$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 13c | 2,000$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.69 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 1,975$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.97 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 52c | 1,139$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.61 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 675.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 11c | 604.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 26c | 505$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 494.37$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 352.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 57c | 306.59$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 294$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 36c | 282$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 26c | 280.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Under | 64c | 219.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 131.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 21c | 117.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 114.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 22c | 110.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked Over | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 52c | 90.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 86.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 21c | 81.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Over | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 75c | 74.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Under | 62c | 73.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe31f…a37cbacked Over | 22c | 69.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…8699backed Over | 23c | 63.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 61.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 51.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…188abacked Over | 21c | 48.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…4414backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 30.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 20.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.