Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c256db9fdbdce392fbc4fa94bf229de7f5178c62bf42a976aa0337868b38780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 16c | 3,240$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.85 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…312abacked Yes | 3c | 1,311$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +278.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 12c | 1,203$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed Yes | 7c | 928.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 11c | 762.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 503.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11d…9c59backed Yes | 15c | 433.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 390$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 384.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a6…4474backed Yes | 12c | 330.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 24c | 322.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…d312backed Yes | 4c | 310$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…bc57backed Yes | 6c | 267.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…a244backed Yes | 11c | 231.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 18c | 226.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 211.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…d4b6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…f9fbbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ba…ba9ebacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 19c | 159.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 144.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78be…cc27backed Yes | 13c | 141.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…f0f5backed Yes | 17c | 117.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 117.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…b1f2backed Yes | 13c | 116.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…964dbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b00…ecfebacked Yes | 22c | 75.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 17c | 73.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…4723backed Yes | 22c | 67.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…5404backed Yes | 31c | 52.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 77c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on June 27?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on June 27?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.