Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a5f87d256f0aa80bb7b90b1f2a3857d8653e3e8a8b720e730aa267302758ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 1,216$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 16c | 1,154$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 377.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 27c | 264.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 238.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…1d97backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 175.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…43c0backed Yes | 22c | 161.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 23c | 123.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 57c | 87.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…b485backed Yes | 25c | 80.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 73.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…934cbacked Yes | 15c | 67.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 79c | 60.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…60fcbacked Yes | 31c | 41.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 73c | 28.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on June 27?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on June 27?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.