Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3dac5b29d359dd16d10d8c370c71edd09d3168a5ef336f159504d79e71261b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 15c | 1,022$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.84 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 14c | 899.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 827.65$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…0f8fbacked Yes | 78c | 570.18$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 41c | 386.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.97 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 13c | 265.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 240$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 63c | 186.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 48c | 180.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 170.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 12c | 165.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 24c | 82.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 80c | 82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…8f99backed Yes | 60c | 72.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…b1f2backed Yes | 37c | 54.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…60fcbacked Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 79c | 44.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 54c | 43.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 26.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 48c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on June 27?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on June 27?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.