Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c58f5402409b8000b60318c1ce2747df21d45803ddab309b5ebc5244c806b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 2,195$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.27 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 21c | 1,249$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.94 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 61c | 1,075$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 67c | 296.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 25c | 285$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 249.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 219.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 215.82$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 18c | 155.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 17c | 118.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 35c | 113.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 25c | 112$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 14c | 96.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 30c | 76.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed Over | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 80c | 65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 23c | 61.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 74c | 53.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 32c | 50.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 32c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 71c | 37.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 36.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.