Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c63f0c8b97c194b45b9955d85e50f8a9ea3a7ace4186555ad69fa7b8dfc2d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 673.67$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 459.89$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 361.71$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 346.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 300.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 53c | 277.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 226.94$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 223.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 178.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 159$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 17c | 146.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 143.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 118.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 117.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 36c | 110.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 36c | 109.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…15f9backed Yes | 36c | 98.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 98.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 45c | 87.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 26c | 80.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 78.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 63c | 77.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 49c | 76.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…554ebacked Yes | 44c | 68.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 59.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 51c | 57.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 53.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 52.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…5025backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 46.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 45.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 45.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 44.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 47c | 41.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 40.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 49c | 35.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 32.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 32.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 30.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 48c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 30.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 63c | 25.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 25.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 55c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.