World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8caf0cd435aabf770f509d42f0160ee40e59906d702f61f113942e48b6b1e246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,221$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.14 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 832.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 686.39$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.33 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 31c | 548.22$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 522$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 51c | 506.27$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 465.81$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 414.03$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 376.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 41c | 350.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 349.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 43c | 322.63$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…a0b7backed Yes | 8c | 288.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…7d72backed Yes | 39c | 272.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…55c6backed Yes | 11c | 232.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 47c | 223.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 216.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 39c | 200.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 55c | 195.94$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 187.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 184$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 183.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…1ad2backed Yes | 10c | 175.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 168.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…0185backed Yes | 8c | 167.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 156$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1b…f307backed Yes | 7c | 155.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 46c | 152.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 148.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 141$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 9c | 140.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 136$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…7e4bbacked Yes | 10c | 131.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 131.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 123.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…6cfebacked Yes | 11c | 122.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 122.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 18c | 112.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 37c | 110.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 109.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 104.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…af1dbacked Yes | 38c | 101.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 101.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 61c | 100.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 50c | 98.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 98.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 91.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 91.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 88.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…633ebacked Yes | 38c | 88.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 49c | 87.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 87.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 35c | 83.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 81.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 75.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 66c | 75.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 33c | 72.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 42c | 71.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 49c | 70.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 29c | 69.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 68c | 68.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 67.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 66.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 54c | 65.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 62c | 61.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 61.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 61.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 42c | 61.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 60.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…1784backed Yes | 17c | 60.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 43c | 57.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 57.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 50c | 56.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 55.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…bc44backed Yes | 45c | 55.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 49.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 61c | 49.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 49.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 47.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 44.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 43.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 45c | 43.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 42.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.