World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e205af722b7059be6195b1c3789d7253213fa959e311bcd02251e5c7ad7981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,876$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.89 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 642.05$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.28 | 432 | 49.1%212 W · 220 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 577.89$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 228 | 55.3%126 W · 102 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 566.77$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.96 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 478$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 470.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 551 | 51.2%282 W · 269 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 7c | 467.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 387.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 259 | 36.7%95 W · 164 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 31c | 374.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 39c | 359.45$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 26c | 344.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 66c | 338.84$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 63c | 322.74$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 66c | 316.19$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 313.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.29 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 59c | 306.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 294.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 251 | 51.8%130 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 76c | 279.96$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.54 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 22c | 277.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 249.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.68 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 48c | 199.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 46c | 178.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 68c | 175.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 175.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 171$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 62c | 170.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 166.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 156.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 151.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 188 | 56.9%107 W · 81 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 74c | 142.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 140.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked No | 74c | 140.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 18c | 139.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 64c | 133.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 127.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 50c | 124.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 33c | 122.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 21c | 117.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 115.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 52c | 100.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 68c | 98.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 98.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 324 | 34.9%113 W · 211 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 92.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 89.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 467 | 37.5%175 W · 292 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 83.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 22c | 83.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 80.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 76.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 76 | 17.1%13 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 74.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 29c | 72.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 31c | 71.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 70c | 71.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 70.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 22c | 69.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 67.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 335 | 54.9%184 W · 151 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 30c | 67.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 65.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 186 | 34.9%65 W · 121 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 64.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed No | 74c | 60.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 60.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 21c | 59.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 59.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 894 | 48.3%432 W · 462 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 35c | 56.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 56.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 245 | 60.4%148 W · 97 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 271 | 55.7%151 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…3c24backed Yes | 41c | 49.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 42c | 49.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 47.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 76c | 47.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 66c | 44.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 44.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 69c | 43.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 74c | 43.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…bc44backed No | 60c | 41.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 49c | 40.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 47c | 40.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 39.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 50c | 38.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 39c | 36.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 74c | 36.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 35c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 34.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 192 | 62.5%120 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 29.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 28.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 339 | 40.1%136 W · 203 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.