World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbebe393bb588c8758ca4cac8f27373322dd497a60f9443d913924f86d4c75d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 557.25$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 181.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 39c | 144.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 132.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 111.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 58c | 98.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 58c | 90.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes | 41c | 90.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 61c | 84.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 78.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 38c | 72.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 60.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 57.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 70c | 53.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 53.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 39c | 52.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 51.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 56c | 50.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 42.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…3c0abacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 36.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 33.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 60c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 55c | 29.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 55c | 26.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…5c67backed No | 54c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…3f36backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 60c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 9?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.