Tennis · resolved market
ATX Open: Francesca Jones vs Peyton Stearns
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd54b72b26ba4ab73c777b14c276da61f3d5cfb4e98532eacc23312b5eb2d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stearnsof Jones, Stearns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Stearns | 43c | 9,414$4,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,340.52 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Jones | 6c | 5,692$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.44 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jones | 14c | 4,886$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.32 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jones | 16c | 4,282$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.76 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Stearns | 70c | 1,548$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.51 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed Stearns | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jones | 30c | 1,471$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.11 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Jones | 56c | 1,462$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.43 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Jones | 32c | 1,333$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.34 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jones | 48c | 1,183$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Stearns | 69c | 1,080$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.68 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Stearns | 64c | 1,018$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.46 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Jones | 30c | 499.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Stearns | 56c | 475$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.21 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Jones | 29c | 430$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Jones | 54c | 417.68$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Jones | 30c | 406.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Jones | 30c | 392.4$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jones | 52c | 371.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Jones | 57c | 345.11$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Stearns | 71c | 336.62$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jones | 30c | 325$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jones | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Jones | 48c | 319.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Jones | 40c | 316.84$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Stearns | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Jones | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jones | 32c | 280.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jones | 29c | 253.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Stearns | 55c | 245$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Jones | 22c | 231.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Jones | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Jones | 30c | 216.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Stearns | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Jones | 27c | 203.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Stearns | 54c | 203$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Jones | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Jones | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Stearns | 77c | 199$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Stearns | 72c | 188.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Jones | 46c | 166.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Jones | 30c | 155.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Stearns | 70c | 145.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…9d56backed Jones | 30c | 141$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…96b5backed Jones | 46c | 102.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 444 | 48.9%217 W · 227 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Jones | 31c | 100.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Stearns | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Stearns | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Stearns | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Jones | 32c | 79.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jones | 28c | 74.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Jones | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Jones | 24c | 70.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Stearns | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Jones | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Jones | 28c | 68.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Stearns | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jones | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Stearns | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Jones | 30c | 55.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Jones | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Jones | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Jones | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…f07ebacked Stearns | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Stearns | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Jones | 30c | 33.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…d5afbacked Jones | 47c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d7…3307backed Jones | 46c | 27.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…0d66backed Jones | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Stearns | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Stearns | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…4a1bbacked Jones | 72c | 19.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed Stearns | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.