Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Claire Liu vs Anna Bondar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ce4713fc8d3909ef02a62c55b191103c26b5dcdc47459fbf98d7ca8855e7fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liuof Liu, Bondar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Liu | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,100 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bondar | 54c | 14,765$7,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,973 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Liu | 50c | 6,085$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.5 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bondar | 48c | 3,716$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.22 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bondar | 46c | 3,047$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.7 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Bondar | 40c | 1,882$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liu | 62c | 1,019$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.35 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Bondar | 36c | 833.88$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Liu | 72c | 780$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Bondar | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Liu | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…468cbacked Liu | 44c | 457$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Liu | 40c | 435.37$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.22 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Liu | 56c | 377.54$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Bondar | 29c | 350$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Liu | 60c | 333.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…6acabacked Liu | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Liu | 42c | 271.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Bondar | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Liu | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2242…201fbacked Bondar | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bondar | 29c | 244.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Bondar | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bondar | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bondar | 26c | 196$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Liu | 76c | 187.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bondar | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Bondar | 49c | 177.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Bondar | 38c | 156.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Liu | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…3b97backed Liu | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Bondar | 28c | 135.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…10ffbacked Liu | 73c | 129.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Bondar | 21c | 121.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…2eb1backed Bondar | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Bondar | 24c | 103.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8335…b3afbacked Bondar | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Liu | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Bondar | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7710…84a0backed Liu | 77c | 67.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked Bondar | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Bondar | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Bondar | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liu | 42c | 46.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…ddbabacked Bondar | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Bondar | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…3775backed Liu | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Bondar | 39c | 26.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Bondar | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab9…2b59backed Bondar | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.