Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ced13f920ef671abb1de437ef33223bdd83abf16f44728506f613c51db57768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 4c | 1,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 7c | 994.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 576.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 7c | 570.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 13c | 508.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 388.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 262.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 58c | 227.34$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 217.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 45c | 212.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 207.48$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 195.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 163$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 28c | 160.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 152.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 130.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 48c | 124.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 15c | 103.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 59c | 98.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 95.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…9acbbacked No | 29c | 93.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 52c | 84.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 43c | 79.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 63c | 75.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 71.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 67.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 63c | 65.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 50c | 59.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 62c | 58.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 23c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 22c | 53.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 27c | 53.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 52c | 49.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 44c | 47.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 41c | 47.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 46.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 53c | 46.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 52c | 44.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 44.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 24c | 42.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…6663backed Yes | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 50c | 38.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 56c | 37.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 42c | 37.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 66c | 36.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 72c | 34.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed Yes | 44c | 34.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 50c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 31.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 49c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 76c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 50c | 25.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4d…e466backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed No | 53c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 80c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.