WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d2ff9de769b27071e601da5dd803cae3c28ee004012fc25b2c21fa7e9dd50a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Seattle Storm, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Seattle Storm | 45c | 1,008$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.45 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Seattle Storm | 42c | 604$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.08 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 57c | 553.48$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Connecticut Sun | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 26c | 244.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 225$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 225$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 108.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Seattle Storm | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Connecticut Sun | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Seattle Storm | 41c | 83.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Connecticut Sun | 75c | 28.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle StormConnecticut Sun won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 165.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-1.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.