Earnings · resolved market
Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d7d46f40cd6aa4830f5fc415a8eca9d9df40b506f2b784cf5eb5de762d5c10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 73c | 665.21$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.52 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed No | 68c | 427.2$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.58 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…bd50backed No | 30c | 331$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 314.65$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 28c | 299.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.69 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 78c | 296.72$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 24c | 293.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 78c | 257.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 10c | 205.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +54%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 19c | 177.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 21c | 154.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 145.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed No | 24c | 124.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 117.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 27c | 101.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…3c54backed No | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 58c | 91.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 48c | 63.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes | 80c | 62.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 66c | 60.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…0bf8backed No | 37c | 54.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…7c50backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…cd5fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed No | 23c | 48.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 32c | 40.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 76c | 34.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 75c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 77c | 28.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…4d96backed Yes | 72c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…85cabacked Yes | 79c | 14.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…a0b8backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.