South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d836ffb69a945c54677da4e7f6bce9402deab17b2597604f847d042887498dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebolof SE Palmeiras, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 14,999$10,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,202.05 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…48a6backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 8,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 6,044$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 3,382$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked SE Palmeiras | 23c | 1,189$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed SE Palmeiras | 27c | 964.95$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.64 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SE Palmeiras | 27c | 910.46$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.66 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked SE Palmeiras | 28c | 708.15$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 465.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 354$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 323.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 73c | 292.34$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 73c | 214.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed SE Palmeiras | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 73c | 160.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 74c | 147.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 110.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed SE Palmeiras | 26c | 109.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed SE Palmeiras | 30c | 101.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed SE Palmeiras | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…4709backed SE Palmeiras | 29c | 98.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked SE Palmeiras | 28c | 88.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed SE Palmeiras | 28c | 70.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked SE Palmeiras | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 71c | 70.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed SE Palmeiras | 29c | 52.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed SE Palmeiras | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 76c | 48.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 45.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…f975backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 43.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 37.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.