South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45fb822215668e0279e6b1cdfea90034229966afb5a31b1c920b14355f0768f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 19c | 4,704$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.54 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 4,123$2,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.35 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 3,383$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.55 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Under | 46c | 2,189$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.63 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 16c | 1,537$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 59c | 1,300$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.9 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 36c | 1,195$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.47 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 52c | 1,096$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.74 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 737.25$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.93 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 57c | 594.01$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 51c | 537.36$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 465.29$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 435.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.79 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…f579backed Over | 55c | 409.6$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 54c | 372.87$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.35 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 310$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 53c | 298.24$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 160.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 16c | 153.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…4bb5backed Under | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 56c | 115.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 62.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 42c | 55.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 48c | 54.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…0f19backed Under | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 54.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 33.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 80c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 425 | 62.4%265 W · 160 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.