Tennis · resolved market
Quebec City: Alexander Donski vs Andrea Guerrieri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d88da06a02bf6a517445aea4cc68dbc17aa947b74fe84f3599891b3b51184a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrea Guerrieriof Alexander Donski, Andrea Guerrieri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Alexander Donski | 34c | 6,225$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Andrea Guerrieri | 68c | 1,491$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.91 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Andrea Guerrieri | 71c | 1,472$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.06 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexander Donski | 32c | 819.76$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Alexander Donski | 12c | 816.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…5fdebacked Andrea Guerrieri | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…b37bbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 70c | 774$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Alexander Donski | 32c | 743.19$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.94 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Andrea Guerrieri | 71c | 625.5$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Alexander Donski | 39c | 609.77$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Andrea Guerrieri | 69c | 454.88$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Andrea Guerrieri | 63c | 358.29$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Andrea Guerrieri | 79c | 353.7$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Alexander Donski | 37c | 285.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Andrea Guerrieri | 47c | 281.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 369 | 46.9%173 W · 196 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Alexander Donski | 18c | 250.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alexander Donski | 22c | 248.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Andrea Guerrieri | 69c | 245.47$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Alexander Donski | 17c | 214.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Alexander Donski | 28c | 162.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alexander Donski | 27c | 161.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Alexander Donski | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Andrea Guerrieri | 67c | 148.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Alexander Donski | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Alexander Donski | 31c | 136.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Alexander Donski | 32c | 125.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Andrea Guerrieri | 69c | 122$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Alexander Donski | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Alexander Donski | 41c | 102.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Alexander Donski | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Alexander Donski | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Alexander Donski | 26c | 87.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Andrea Guerrieri | 68c | 77.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Andrea Guerrieri | 64c | 65.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Alexander Donski | 33c | 61.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Andrea Guerrieri | 63c | 49.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 232 | 56.5%131 W · 101 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Alexander Donski | 36c | 47.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Alexander Donski | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…1c3cbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Alexander Donski | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…1735backed Andrea Guerrieri | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 139 | 66.2%92 W · 47 L | +15.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Andrea Guerrieri | 55c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 337 | 54%182 W · 155 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Andrea Guerrieri | 72c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 355 | 58.6%208 W · 147 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Andrea Guerrieri | 66c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.