Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8daaaf0011d0335392913dc8d99ff908acd03d3939abf5d4ae491b0b6bb6f1c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 1,092$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 34c | 899.11$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 43c | 660.17$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 405.48$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…a60abacked Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 67c | 249.06$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 33c | 240.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 153.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 133.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 120.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 69c | 108.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 99.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 98.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 95.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 91.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 26c | 77.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 72.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 70.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 65.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 65.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 60.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 52.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 57c | 51.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 51.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 50.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 46.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 51c | 43.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 39.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 38.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 34.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 33.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…f2aebacked No | 56c | 32.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 51c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 27.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 48c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.