TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pigeonsof Alliance Guardians, Pigeons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Pigeons51c4,257$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.0613651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Alliance Guardians45c4,190$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.685836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Pigeons57c3,732$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.193060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Pigeons37c3,186$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.459844.9%44 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd037…5ea2backed Alliance Guardians49c2,306$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.913447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Pigeons39c2,029$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.4670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Pigeons51c1,848$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.9723151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Alliance Guardians39c1,688$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.7977744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96bb…f0fabacked Pigeons44c1,588$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.412462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Alliance Guardians46c1,357$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.4741537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Alliance Guardians69c1,321$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.671,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Alliance Guardians45c999.97$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-62.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbcfe…68f8backed Pigeons29c988.18$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99f7…e7c8backed Alliance Guardians52c923.43$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa103…db38backed Alliance Guardians41c723.76$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Pigeons35c665.01$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.9954342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Pigeons60c611.99$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.584755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf6a…1ddbbacked Alliance Guardians48c515.33$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.131136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0851…1de8backed Alliance Guardians49c505$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Pigeons54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23036648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc947…f70cbacked Alliance Guardians40c494.14$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.23425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Alliance Guardians52c457.01$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.341758.8%10 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Pigeons37c446.89$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.53450%17 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Alliance Guardians31c437.7$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5817448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked Alliance Guardians49c427.48$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.133537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Alliance Guardians49c385.96$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4435331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Alliance Guardians59c357.72$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.414533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Alliance Guardians32c338.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7516442.1%69 W · 95 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Alliance Guardians45c332.67$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.413850%19 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Pigeons55c332.16$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.046725.4%17 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05df…e268backed Alliance Guardians45c311.81$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.312138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Pigeons37c285.53$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9534739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Alliance Guardians45c278.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1214252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Pigeons43c268.33$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6619661.7%121 W · 75 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d1e…8f0cbacked Alliance Guardians10c263.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67cb…f4f5backed Alliance Guardians12c214.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Alliance Guardians56c211.62$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.021,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b60…5c4ebacked Alliance Guardians28c204.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6110333%34 W · 69 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Pigeons53c203.35$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.367241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Pigeons42c170.86$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8763652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Alliance Guardians57c158.09$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.571346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x153f…6eabbacked Alliance Guardians45c156.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Alliance Guardians47c150.33$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.661942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac5…cab7backed Pigeons55c147.55$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.247948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Alliance Guardians49c144.22$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3527947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed Alliance Guardians47c125$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.75825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Alliance Guardians48c122.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.17342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Alliance Guardians32c121.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4626730.7%82 W · 185 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Pigeons34c112.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.417456.8%42 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x382a…aab7backed Alliance Guardians48c111.56$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.653948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Alliance Guardians47c106.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6814729.9%44 W · 103 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Pigeons49c102.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Pigeons50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5033753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5489…1633backed Alliance Guardians49c98.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.476533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4552…5eb2backed Pigeons57c98.79$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Alliance Guardians50c92.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.116046.9%75 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f8…5a82backed Pigeons53c85.1$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Alliance Guardians38c85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0118056.1%101 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Alliance Guardians50c83.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.455538.2%21 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Alliance Guardians74c73.23$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.146759.7%40 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb29a…bbdebacked Pigeons31c68.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.364055%22 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Alliance Guardians30c63.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2777929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Alliance Guardians41c62.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.517433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pigeons36c57.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1657517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9ba2…6b6cbacked Pigeons72c54.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0816858.9%99 W · 69 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance Guardians47c52.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.631,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc3…5d06backed Alliance Guardians35c48.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5004…c07bbacked Alliance Guardians47c41.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.367152.1%37 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Pigeons58c40.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9924751.8%128 W · 119 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb6…bddfbacked Alliance Guardians74c39.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.533154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Pigeons32c35.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415512.3%19 W · 136 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-62.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Pigeons48c35.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.324052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed Alliance Guardians69c35.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081f…d5c0backed Alliance Guardians69c34.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.571866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8701…2075backed Pigeons58c33.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.231233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pigeons63c31.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb0…ed25backed Alliance Guardians47c30.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.527745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Alliance Guardians43c30.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1838548.6%187 W · 198 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x093b…4e14backed Pigeons56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.22673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4048…d4adbacked Pigeons53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Alliance Guardians72c29.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2422047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Pigeons51c27.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6325745.9%118 W · 139 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Pigeons51c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2311841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a7d…d99cbacked Alliance Guardians73c26.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43f5…40d0backed Pigeons55c26.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.842152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b8…4fa1backed Alliance Guardians48c24.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Alliance Guardians70c22.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7130652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Pigeons54c21.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…9d28backed Pigeons56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Pigeons65c15.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.488062.5%50 W · 30 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Alliance Guardians76c13.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.069561.1%58 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.