Cricket · resolved market
Will Sri Lanka win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dcb1b470206fb8bd3ba3d0f4e358623cf688f0f490220f99822a0f1a94ae616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcdb…c4eebacked Yes | 3c | 15,350$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Yes | 2c | 10,548$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.32 | 135 | 26.7%36 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 2c | 8,995$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.28 | 318 | 43.1%137 W · 181 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed Yes | 2c | 8,318$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 190 | 13.2%25 W · 165 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 6c | 7,586$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.39 | 290 | 49%142 W · 148 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,995$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.71 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…d0ecbacked Yes | 2c | 3,020$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 145 | 17.2%25 W · 120 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…449cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,639$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,636$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5d…fd1abacked Yes | 5c | 1,300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…90d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,171$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.07 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…4637backed Yes | 4c | 432$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…2f49backed Yes | 3c | 333.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…30a5backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 5c | 230.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…9da2backed Yes | 7c | 220.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…74c8backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 8c | 196.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 334 | 41.3%138 W · 196 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…9dd0backed Yes | 6c | 167.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 8c | 165$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…3c60backed Yes | 11c | 121.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Yes | 17c | 118.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 16c | 89.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sri Lanka win?this page
- Will India win?No won
- Will the match end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.