Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e06b38c564b12de981735ad04c7e10a81f10ec0bb7650d2302d983d33cb5832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xavier Musketeersof Villanova Wildcats, Xavier Musketeers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 11,772$6,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,750.5 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 10,051$4,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,925 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Xavier Musketeers | 45c | 10,004$4,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,501.65 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 7,486$3,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,668.18 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 4,978$2,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Villanova Wildcats | 51c | 3,973$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.21 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Villanova Wildcats | 54c | 3,619$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.04 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 3,202$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.83 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 2,681$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.87 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 2,465$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.25 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 2,400$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 2,004$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.43 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 1,827$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.78 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 1,212$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.51 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.39 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 1,050$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.37 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 757.55$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.2 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 674.66$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.77 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Xavier Musketeers | 40c | 600$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.98 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a8…2587backed Xavier Musketeers | 54c | 521.37$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 483.49$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.41 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 436$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Villanova Wildcats | 46c | 397.87$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 362.89$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…bed9backed Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 351.97$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 318.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.18 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 307.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 290.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.11 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed Xavier Musketeers | 55c | 271.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Villanova Wildcats | 45c | 265.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Xavier Musketeers | 63c | 228.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Xavier Musketeers | 71c | 221.57$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Villanova Wildcats | 33c | 201$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 197.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 195.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Xavier Musketeers | 58c | 173.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Xavier Musketeers | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Villanova Wildcats | 57c | 159$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Villanova Wildcats | 50c | 142.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Xavier Musketeers | 46c | 130.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Villanova Wildcats | 50c | 111.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 109.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Villanova Wildcats | 41c | 100.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Villanova Wildcats | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Xavier Musketeers | 68c | 88.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Villanova Wildcats | 19c | 86.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 71.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Villanova Wildcats | 31c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Villanova Wildcats | 54c | 58.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Villanova Wildcats | 46c | 54.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 50.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 47.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Villanova Wildcats | 48c | 41.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Xavier Musketeers | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 37.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Xavier Musketeers | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Xavier Musketeers | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…5631backed Villanova Wildcats | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Villanova Wildcats | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-3.5)Xavier Musketeers won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier MusketeersVillanova Wildcats won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 151.5Over won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 152.5Over won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 153.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.