MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0ee15b12110c5202ff6610bbd5fabaa03b4c073403debd036598271bc46c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 43c | 1,759$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.72 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 57c | 1,700$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.99 | 234 | 57.7%135 W · 99 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 1,535$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.22 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 750.4$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.4 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 43c | 569.3$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 57c | 436.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.02 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 42c | 418.43$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 410.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.19 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b0…293fbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 60c | 166.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 40c | 92.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 86.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 58c | 83.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…dda4backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…0180backed Yes | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…9b35backed No | 58c | 38.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 42c | 37.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Yes | 43c | 29.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 26.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…f17fbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…9526backed No | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1b08backed Yes | 44c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.