MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5d7436c020fb79f009866206e6232e350833742dd11bfc4f726eba5b476daa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 2,605$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 64c | 2,421$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.84 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 2,104$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,985$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,710$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.61 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 42c | 1,363$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.82 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 1,253$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.01 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 40c | 1,172$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.13 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 877.68$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 58c | 858.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.76 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 729.42$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 394.62$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 40c | 366.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 40c | 301.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 41c | 274$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…cd25backed Under | 59c | 252.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a4…ad72backed Under | 56c | 227.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed Under | 56c | 225.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 59c | 211.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Under | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 57c | 138.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 135.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a570backed Under | 56c | 127.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…dc3ebacked Under | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 40c | 121.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 44c | 117.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…fb29backed Under | 57c | 117.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…dda4backed Under | 61c | 113.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 40c | 111.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Under | 60c | 91.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed Under | 56c | 76.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 39c | 71.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 57c | 63.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 57c | 63.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 38c | 56.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 37c | 46.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 39c | 40.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 40c | 29.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.