Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win New Mexico US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e69d81c842e4887edbd21dabcc85e8a0e05dc2efeacc1dca2995f4f02122e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 5,615$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.91 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…f8dfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,198$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4769…95fdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,150$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 11c | 1,888$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 5c | 1,024$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…5706backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 5c | 663.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 5c | 502.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…53d8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 7c | 490$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 405$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 10c | 400.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 10c | 333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 4c | 315.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 12c | 313$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…5929backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win New Mexico US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win New Mexico US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win New Mexico US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.