La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7d77a87b4e5b4c8a6242ad9c3e244d6c72888878c1dddb70bc77705de37d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked Over | 66c | 5,084$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Under | 34c | 4,661$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.71 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,598$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.83 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 41c | 779.62$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.13 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 65c | 705.77$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 77c | 519.83$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa828…41bcbacked Over | 65c | 485.96$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 60c | 310$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 35c | 286$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Under | 57c | 270$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 35c | 257.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 36c | 243$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 21c | 172.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 66c | 119.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 67c | 106.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 66c | 94.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 33c | 86.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…e25abacked Under | 49c | 78.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 64c | 74.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…b7a5backed Over | 51c | 59.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 58.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 48.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Over | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 56c | 34.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760d…deaabacked Over | 67c | 30.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 38c | 26.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Over | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Elche CF vs. Real Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Elche CF vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.