NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7e99516933db544632f400f29d6d054076f3967bc94f17ce8b598fd066e8e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Wizards | 0c | 49,481$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Wizards | 8c | 15,970$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.65 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 8c | 10,600$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.98 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Wizards | 8c | 9,136$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.86 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed Wizards | 8c | 8,576$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.06 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Wizards | 1c | 8,100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 61 | 6.6%4 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 8c | 8,058$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.5 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 9c | 7,659$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.19 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Wizards | 8c | 6,872$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.64 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards | 8c | 6,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wizards | 7c | 3,469$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked Wizards | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Wizards | 7c | 3,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 21.6%49 W · 178 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Wizards | 8c | 2,685$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.08 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596d…898cbacked Wizards | 9c | 2,267$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Wizards | 7c | 2,091$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards | 2c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…e936backed Wizards | 5c | 1,823$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…dffabacked Wizards | 8c | 1,687$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…5d66backed Wizards | 5c | 1,210$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wizards | 7c | 1,039$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542e…e88ebacked Wizards | 4c | 933.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Wizards | 2c | 908.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…162abacked Wizards | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Wizards | 7c | 878.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Wizards | 9c | 770.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Wizards | 8c | 701$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Wizards | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +52.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wizards | 8c | 683$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Wizards | 8c | 683$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards | 7c | 636.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…4603backed Wizards | 8c | 615.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Wizards | 6c | 467$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Wizards | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f17abacked Wizards | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Wizards | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 350 | 46%161 W · 189 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards | 8c | 399.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Wizards | 9c | 329.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Wizards | 8c | 325$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 28.4%48 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 8c | 310$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…c47fbacked Wizards | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 6c | 260.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Wizards | 6c | 253.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf678…ae42backed Wizards | 8c | 249.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…7cc7backed Wizards | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Wizards | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659e…a0f1backed Wizards | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…99eabacked Wizards | 8c | 123$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…5258backed Wizards | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Wizards | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…fd3abacked Wizards | 9c | 114.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…2cf2backed Wizards | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…54f4backed Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.