Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e981422e26855b1afaea1c72113a96701f064927a78867747d1b13bb6e2b013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 500.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 70c | 321.7$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.65 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 315.78$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 243.41$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 222.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 213.1$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 212$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 210.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 200.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 189.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 162.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 151.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 72c | 138.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 75c | 132.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 106.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 100.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 27c | 97.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 97.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 52c | 93.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 33c | 93.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 50c | 70.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 69.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 31c | 67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 62.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 60.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 50.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 49.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 47.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 40.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 29.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 74c | 27.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…8919backed Yes | 66c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 22.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 18.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 17.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.