CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ea7a4d7e6e2647da57a99d982dd88c4181cb4b82ff58f7ab2bc93fe081b45b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Passion UA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3621…2d2dbacked Passion UA | 0c | 60,004$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Passion UA | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked Passion UA | 17c | 9,306$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.7 | 410 | 40%164 W · 246 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Passion UA | 2c | 5,363$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 484 | 37.6%182 W · 302 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Passion UA | 5c | 3,476$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 401 | 40.6%163 W · 238 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…50fcbacked Passion UA | 19c | 2,271$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…3d79backed Passion UA | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Passion UA | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Passion UA | 13c | 1,300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…7e08backed Passion UA | 5c | 1,213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Passion UA | 7c | 1,136$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 172 | 30.8%53 W · 119 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Passion UA | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 320 | 42.5%136 W · 184 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…d240backed Passion UA | 4c | 885.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…d916backed Passion UA | 12c | 869.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…ba85backed Passion UA | 19c | 856.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Passion UA | 2c | 682.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b9…94a3backed Passion UA | 18c | 650$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Passion UA | 5c | 609.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 383 | 12.8%49 W · 334 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Passion UA | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 591$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Passion UA | 6c | 590$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked Passion UA | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Passion UA | 19c | 502.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Passion UA | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Passion UA | 6c | 410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 364 | 46.7%170 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Passion UA | 15c | 332.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Passion UA | 18c | 303$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 456 | 46.9%214 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Passion UA | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Passion UA | 11c | 266.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Passion UA | 6c | 248.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…2afabacked Passion UA | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 415 | 16.6%69 W · 346 L | -36.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5e77backed Passion UA | 18c | 155.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Passion UA | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec30…30b9backed Passion UA | 13c | 148.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Passion UA | 13c | 147.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Passion UA | 17c | 143.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 402 | 53.7%216 W · 186 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Passion UA | 8c | 143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 298 | 31.5%94 W · 204 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Passion UA | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Passion UA | 16c | 137.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 483 | 19%92 W · 391 L | -65.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Passion UA | 15c | 129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Passion UA | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…9a56backed Passion UA | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Passion UA | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 99.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…0c34backed Passion UA | 18c | 85.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Passion UA | 17c | 84.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Passion UA | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 32.5%66 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…90ddbacked Passion UA | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 49.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 587 | 45%264 W · 323 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 587 | 55.9%328 W · 259 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.