MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed24a7547fa0f7cf45ae19492393355bbf7b1cef3cd9d9a4addf3820c0b634f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 3,804$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 3,603$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 689.63$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.23 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 448.18$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 382.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 278.65$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 212.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Texas Rangers | 34c | 198.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 165.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 136.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 124.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 28c | 118.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 114.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 104$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 104$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 102.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 102.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Texas Rangers | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 98.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 96.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Texas Rangers | 22c | 91.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 88.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 82.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 76.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 59.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 56.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 36.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 34.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 27.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 26.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 20.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 17.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.