CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ef590a6e60ed1a03b23f5e9489876d96c8cb5dcecffc7404446406839fc412a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of Aurora Gaming, M80
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked M80 | 52c | 18,103$9,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,689.44 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 4,228$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f4adbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 4,031$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.92 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…4998backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 2,414$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 1,986$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.3 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed M80 | 51c | 1,901$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.25 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…44a3backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 1,217$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.35 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 1,009$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed M80 | 50c | 692.54$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.27 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…baccbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 641.83$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.08 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…962ebacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 494.49$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…3da4backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 391.84$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…89b6backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 328.86$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 180 | 61.7%111 W · 69 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 298.72$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 217.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 676 | 51.8%350 W · 326 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…c4adbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 185.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 172.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 164.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 161.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 135.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 121.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 182 | 39%71 W · 111 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…faafbacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 90.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed M80 | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fde…9ab1backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 84.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 77.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed M80 | 42c | 63.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…b8b0backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 295 | 58.6%173 W · 122 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…8091backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 54.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…e21abacked M80 | 36c | 53.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked M80 | 51c | 53.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Aurora Gaming | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d6bebacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Aurora Gaming | 47c | 40.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…c9bebacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 23.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…6223backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 21.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsM80 won
- Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.