NFL · resolved market
Spread: PHI (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f157f9e356b9f374c905ea339c1a4dc29c2c8271300e546c166e810d07c28b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NEof PHI, NE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked PHI | 50c | 4,040$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.35 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed NE | 50c | 1,723$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.5 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed NE | 50c | 1,605$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.76 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PHI | 49c | 1,051$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.11 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed NE | 51c | 922$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.78 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed NE | 51c | 845.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed NE | 53c | 337.34$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked NE | 37c | 288$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked PHI | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed PHI | 52c | 181.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed PHI | 49c | 131.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed PHI | 52c | 96.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed NE | 48c | 68.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed NE | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked PHI | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked PHI | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed NE | 51c | 51.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed PHI | 41c | 35.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked PHI | 41c | 31.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PHI (-1.5)this page
- Eagles vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Eagles vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- PHI vs. NE: O/U 36.5Over won
- PHI vs. NE: O/U 37.5Over won
- Spread: PHI (-2.5)NE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.