NFL · resolved market
PHI vs. NE: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98130d1dc9e8bde4d4a864467a6b3dcdae08ff5a5197e0d7c0fccde11da12f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 4,245$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.15 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 3,893$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Over | 50c | 2,741$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 1,971$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.18 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 49c | 1,848$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.37 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,091$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.72 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 746.87$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.37 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 42c | 644$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 507.74$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.35 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 53c | 494$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.89 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 365$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 50c | 255$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 50c | 247.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 51c | 205.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 54c | 167.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 158$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…f918backed Under | 54c | 143.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 44c | 138$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Over | 50c | 136$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…ed67backed Under | 51c | 95.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 53c | 77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 57c | 75.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…91cdbacked Over | 43c | 75.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 75.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 51c | 55.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 62c | 52.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…8785backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 26.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PHI vs. NE: O/U 37.5this page
- Eagles vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Eagles vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- PHI vs. NE: O/U 36.5Over won
- Spread: PHI (-1.5)NE won
- Spread: PHI (-2.5)NE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.