NFL · resolved market
PHI vs. NE: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c0140bab096457ee2fa812fa14dec153615ad16dbbe9780a9333ecea986752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 95,296$49,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,534.74 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 43,670$20,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,670.6 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…0eaebacked Over | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.43 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 4,800$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 4,373$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.31 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 3,534$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,133$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.66 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 650.8$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 50c | 650$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 49c | 605.3$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 55c | 536.18$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.44 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 490.95$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.17 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 272$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 265.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 158$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 148.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…b046backed Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 52c | 51.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 48c | 50.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 45c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 41c | 42.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…7298backed Under | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Under | 47c | 30.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 53c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Under | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 47c | 24.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 47c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PHI vs. NE: O/U 36.5this page
- Eagles vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Eagles vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- PHI vs. NE: O/U 37.5Over won
- Spread: PHI (-1.5)NE won
- Spread: PHI (-2.5)NE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.