Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f1fa5ce6b2ed98c30481a936eafc4c8917feec722271961ae79b5b7410e5a85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 1,501$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 73c | 1,238$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.58 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 881.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 6c | 802.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.72 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 638.89$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 514.77$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 500.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 2c | 496.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 477.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 419.72$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 355.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 4c | 311.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.18 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 17c | 224.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 188.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 6c | 180.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 79c | 179$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 169.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 7c | 157$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 151.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 16c | 133.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 132.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 131.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 13c | 94.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 80.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 72.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 66.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 51.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 40.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 41c | 30.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 27.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.