Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c30045e964527b79cd9e41eed48f2719293adaf627fd1d6b038d2548a4a2b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 53c | 1,427$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.67 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 1,410$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 75c | 1,204$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.38 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 74c | 1,160$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.22 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 20c | 919.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 700.81$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 570.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 479.35$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 463$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 444.83$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 436.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 397.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 29c | 396.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 386.61$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 348.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 338.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 337.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 306.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 78c | 294.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 77c | 289.12$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 275.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.78 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 4c | 268.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 20c | 252.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 39c | 187.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…690dbacked Yes | 27c | 165.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…4b78backed Yes | 27c | 161.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 80c | 157.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 148.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…ff5dbacked Yes | 27c | 139.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 80c | 139.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 138.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 76c | 135$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 18c | 128$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 119.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 116.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 112.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 106.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 17c | 100.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 55c | 100.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 34c | 97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 24c | 87.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 17c | 78.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 23c | 75.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 27c | 73.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 74c | 69.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 67.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed Yes | 16c | 66.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 18c | 60.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 57.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 56.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 52.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…68ccbacked Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 45.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 44.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 50c | 44.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 42.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 29c | 38.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 52c | 36.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 36c | 34.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked No | 75c | 33.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 72c | 33.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 39c | 32.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 24.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 17.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.