Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3014e3817204ed621410ecfe1d29b29db976d549edacbe5c93a74d4192b73a62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 26c | 772.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 25c | 418.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 221$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 15c | 151.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed Yes | 33c | 149.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 130.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 20c | 118.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 109.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 73c | 108.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 105.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 38c | 100.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7452…5f6fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 98.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 97.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 96.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 88.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 81.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 78c | 81.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 77.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 76.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 76.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…5b5cbacked Yes | 19c | 68.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…6e35backed Yes | 30c | 67.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 33c | 61.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 27c | 58.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 55.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…dfa9backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 70c | 47.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…68ccbacked Yes | 22c | 46.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 43.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 37.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 36.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 36.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 68c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 15.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.