Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f240918672a10f7b70d87e7b3410f6a986cd8bfd6b340d267c82041c427f326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 35c | 1,236$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.82 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 511.9$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 425.7$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 45c | 357.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 63c | 313.42$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 287.86$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 242.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 236.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 40c | 233$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 219.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 197.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 42c | 184.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 45c | 177.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 176.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 174.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 165.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 13c | 157.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 157.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 147.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 147.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 130.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 117.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 73c | 116.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 115.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 41c | 104.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 99.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 80.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 75.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 34c | 72.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 48c | 70.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 39c | 70.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 61.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 58.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 58.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 30c | 49.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 40c | 43.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 37.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 35.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 36c | 35.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 42c | 34.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 36c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 31.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 72c | 30.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 62c | 27.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 52c | 26.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 56c | 23.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…3c0dbacked No | 71c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…99a2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 80c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.