Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $50 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f434513700d9d990523e3169a438f0c2d57fce2e940cb081ff4480dceca6f02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $253,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 1c | 35,583$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.59 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 1c | 15,520$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.52 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 3c | 14,288$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.13 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…46d1backed Yes | 7c | 10,942$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.65 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 4c | 10,700$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.9 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 9c | 10,153$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.84 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 5c | 7,500$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…6d64backed Yes | 0c | 6,824$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 6,647$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,138$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,597$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…e94dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,927$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,876$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,905$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…d30bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,633$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,536$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,506$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,345$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,258$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 1,254$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…f5bcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,152$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b7a7backed Yes | 7c | 618.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…ff3cbacked Yes | 4c | 487.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 460.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Yes | 10c | 435.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…8492backed Yes | 5c | 415.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 3c | 393.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -93%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…17c3backed Yes | 7c | 393.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 310.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 309.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 9c | 303.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 4c | 294$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 11c | 149.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $50 in April?this page
- Will Solana dip to $20 in April?No won
- Will Solana dip to $30 in April?No won
- Will Solana dip to $60 in April?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $100 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $120 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $130 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 in April?No won
- Will Solana reach $80 in April?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $90 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.