Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f5443675511043670ea609e8f790cfd8e2e73b560def3299b557c8f95f786f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00c9…4efdbacked Over | 10c | 3,871$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 5c | 3,840$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 12c | 1,250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 19c | 1,073$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.42 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…eee2backed Over | 11c | 730$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 32.9%75 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 25c | 401.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 72c | 177.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 168.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 72c | 135.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed Under | 72c | 134.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 75c | 132.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…9817backed Under | 78c | 117.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 72c | 71.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 72c | 70.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 27c | 51.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…8d4cbacked Under | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Under | 78c | 38.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Under | 71c | 35.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 76c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 80c | 20.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0445…6e67backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.