Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe41694d69ae902a25d480151185bde3bc0482c5e8db419564801c243dbec0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Chelsea FC, Newcastle United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,306 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Newcastle United FC | 70c | 8,142$5,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.99 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Chelsea FC | 30c | 4,290$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Chelsea FC | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 1,089$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.46 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Newcastle United FC | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 321 | 58.9%189 W · 132 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Chelsea FC | 33c | 889.46$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.39 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Chelsea FC | 29c | 841.02$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 660.46$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…9dd6backed Chelsea FC | 2c | 510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…43c5backed Newcastle United FC | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Chelsea FC | 33c | 375.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Newcastle United FC | 69c | 193.39$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Chelsea FC | 15c | 175.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Chelsea FC | 34c | 173.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Newcastle United FC | 66c | 173.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Chelsea FC | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Chelsea FC | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 90.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Chelsea FC | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe1…befbbacked Chelsea FC | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed Newcastle United FC | 71c | 70.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chelsea FC | 26c | 64.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…2b74backed Chelsea FC | 31c | 57.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Chelsea FC | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 55.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Chelsea FC | 30c | 36.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Newcastle United FC | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…b015backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chelsea FC | 33c | 34.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b79…4acbbacked Chelsea FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 42cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Newcastle United FC | 66c | 27.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…a606backed Newcastle United FC | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Newcastle United FC | 71c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Newcastle United FC | 68c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Newcastle United FC | 70c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.