NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f54db0c18b088dc9f78450b9f6c962cdaffba7101f656cfa15f93a1e809edee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Predatorsof Ducks, Predators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Predators | 65c | 2,865$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.1 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Ducks | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…6b95backed Ducks | 36c | 977.28$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Ducks | 35c | 662.74$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.04 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Ducks | 35c | 398.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Predators | 64c | 345.24$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ducks | 35c | 251$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 34c | 244.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Predators | 65c | 199$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Ducks | 10c | 198.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Ducks | 35c | 197.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Predators | 66c | 178.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Ducks | 35c | 123.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Ducks | 34c | 77.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Ducks | 35c | 76.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Predators | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Predators | 64c | 68.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ducks | 33c | 66.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Predators | 67c | 59.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Predators | 64c | 55.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Predators | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ducks | 34c | 48.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Predators | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Predators | 63c | 42.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Ducks | 35c | 41.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Ducks | 37c | 40.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Ducks | 35c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Ducks | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Predators | 66c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Predators | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Predators | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Predators | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Predators | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Predators | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Predators vs. DucksPredators won
- Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.